Foreign Policy

40 resolved · 76 open · 9/40 resolved YES

Open markets

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Open $33,211,225 Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Open $23,356,221 Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Open $1,948,087 China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Open $1,805,532 US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Open $1,402,493 Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? Open $1,155,125 Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Open $1,009,378 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Open $964,455 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Open $934,901 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? Open $835,426 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq? Open $785,610 Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Open $728,334 Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Open $636,958 US strike on Mexico by December 31? Open $632,367 Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026? Open $412,368 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Open $330,101 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Open $321,874 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Open $318,028 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Open $310,061 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Open $288,141 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Open $286,738 Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Open $277,815 Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? Open $274,743 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? Open $247,741

Resolved markets

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? No · 0% $73,752,993 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Yes · 100% $60,668,118 Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? No · 0% $56,491,984 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? No · 0% $26,995,078 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? No · 0% $17,125,743 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Yes · 100% $14,502,614 Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? No · 0% $12,364,378 Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? No · 0% $10,607,442 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? No · 0% $9,527,883 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? No · 0% $8,775,891 Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30? Yes · 100% $8,030,506 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? No · 0% $7,157,114 Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? Yes · 100% $7,079,947 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? No · 0% $6,968,929 Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? No · 0% $6,796,182 Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? No · 0% $6,088,147 Trump admin announces cutting Ukraine aid by Friday? Yes · 100% $5,885,981 Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Yes · 100% $5,478,819 Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? No · 0% $5,465,012 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? No · 0% $4,903,949 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? No · 0% $4,485,079 Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? No · 0% $4,237,143 Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? No · 0% $3,723,848 Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? No · 0% $3,672,945