U.S. x Iran

53 resolved · 46 open · 12/53 resolved YES

Open markets

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Open $8,436,306 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? Open $2,123,972 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Open $1,955,448 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Open $1,846,187 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Open $1,715,296 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Open $1,696,806 Iran full airspace closure by July 15? Open $1,348,865 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Open $1,289,034 Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Open $1,051,698 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Open $965,735 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Open $881,974 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Open $809,014 Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? Open $778,744 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Open $763,959 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026? Open $566,960 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? Open $536,100 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? Open $474,628 Iran full airspace closure by July 31? Open $470,508 US military draft authorized in 2026? Open $448,438 US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? Open $366,880 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Open $313,672 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026? Open $243,101 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? Open $242,533 Iran full airspace closure by August 31? Open $236,412

Resolved markets

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? No · 0% $203,621,392 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes · 100% $177,370,818 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? No · 0% $87,888,981 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes · 100% $49,036,514 Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? No · 0% $38,330,965 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? No · 0% $38,005,859 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? No · 0% $34,564,222 Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Yes · 100% $28,778,655 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? No · 0% $26,051,735 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? No · 0% $24,173,101 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? No · 0% $22,930,944 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? No · 0% $20,542,829 US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes · 100% $20,219,694 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? No · 0% $19,099,092 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? No · 0% $18,446,435 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? No · 0% $17,940,559 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? No · 0% $17,372,089 Iran closes its airspace by May 24? No · 0% $15,430,021 US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes · 100% $14,411,915 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No · 0% $13,456,217 Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? No · 0% $13,050,669 US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes · 100% $12,699,540 Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? No · 0% $12,086,752 Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Yes · 100% $11,787,943