U.S. x Iran

55 resolved · 54 open · 13/55 resolved YES

Open markets

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Open $80,267,701 US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Open $6,444,951 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Open $4,620,737 US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? Open $3,222,576 US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? Open $2,781,635 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Open $2,694,337 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Open $2,654,757 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Open $2,245,051 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? Open $1,476,434 Iran full airspace closure by December 31? Open $1,113,594 US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? Open $937,634 Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Open $912,297 Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Open $867,995 US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? Open $775,561 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? Open $701,724 Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? Open $688,975 US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Open $686,643 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8? Open $661,464 US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? Open $641,350 US military draft authorized in 2026? Open $552,663 Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? Open $493,325 Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? Open $471,631 Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Open $397,903 Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Open $381,010

Resolved markets

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? No · 0% $203,621,392 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes · 100% $177,370,818 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? No · 0% $87,888,981 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes · 100% $49,036,514 Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? No · 0% $38,330,965 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? No · 0% $38,005,859 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? No · 0% $34,564,222 Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Yes · 100% $28,778,655 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? No · 0% $26,051,735 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? No · 0% $24,173,101 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? No · 0% $22,930,944 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? No · 0% $20,542,829 US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes · 100% $20,219,694 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? No · 0% $19,099,092 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? No · 0% $18,446,435 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? No · 0% $17,940,559 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? No · 0% $17,372,089 Iran closes its airspace by May 24? No · 0% $15,430,021 US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes · 100% $14,411,915 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No · 0% $13,456,217 Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? No · 0% $13,050,669 US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes · 100% $12,699,540 Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? No · 0% $12,086,752 US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes · 100% $11,868,402