Economic Policy

45 resolved · 51 open · 11/45 resolved YES

Open markets

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $8,436,447 Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $5,267,834 Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $4,950,980 Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $4,284,511 Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $4,222,076 Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $3,956,436 Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $3,522,869 Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $3,291,613 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $3,205,879 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Open $3,188,128 Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $2,985,288 Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $2,927,940 Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $2,728,920 Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? Open $2,414,026 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Open $2,094,520 US recession by end of 2026? Open $1,970,096 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Open $1,719,345 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Open $1,474,965 Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Open $1,373,490 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? Open $1,124,779 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? Open $1,083,950 Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? Open $538,044 Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? Open $499,987 Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Open $441,224

Resolved markets

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? No · 0% $235,065,167 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? No · 0% $216,455,743 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? No · 0% $172,972,057 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? No · 0% $161,574,382 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? No · 0% $133,173,605 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Yes · 100% $106,767,096 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? No · 0% $101,211,543 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? No · 0% $87,103,284 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Yes · 100% $76,909,226 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? No · 0% $75,978,206 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? No · 0% $66,025,384 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? No · 0% $65,311,949 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No · 0% $56,435,145 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No · 0% $56,255,119 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Yes · 100% $54,634,507 No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? No · 0% $44,523,455 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes · 100% $43,061,416 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · 100% $42,158,279 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes · 100% $40,497,086 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No · 0% $37,866,883 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No · 0% $33,434,868 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No · 0% $31,037,182 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No · 0% $30,934,916 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No · 0% $27,994,692